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It has been an unusually slow start to the hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. So far, there has not been a named storm. The last time we made it through July without a single named storm was 2004. That year went on to be relatively active, with 15 named storms and 9 hurricanes. If we don’t see a storm before August 4, then we are looking at the latest starting hurricane season since 1988.

So, with the late start and the forecast of an average season, does that mean we are off the hook for any serious hurricanes this year? Absolutely not.  2004 turned out to be an above average year, and also a deadly one, with the likes of Charley, Frances, Hermine, Ivan, and Jeanne contributing to over 3100 deaths and almost $50 billion in damage.

Another late starting season was 1991. There was an unamed subtropical storm in April. The first named storm of the year arrived in mid-August, and it was a whopper. Hurricane Andrew roared through South Florida as a category 5 storm.  It emerged into the Gulf of Mexico, ultimately making a second landfall in the Louisiana Bayou. Before Katrina, Andrew was the benchmark for monster storms in recent years.

1938, 1954, 1976, 1985, 1991 – all years when a hurricane has impacted our area. They are also years where the hurricane activity on the whole was at all or below normal for the season.

The number of “ducks on the pond” is one thing, but, for us it is much more about the pattern that brings hurricanes from the tropics up the Eastern Seaboard. For most of this summer, that pattern has been favorable for bringing a storm our way. There has been a slight pattern shift in the past two weeks, but it is still possible to see a storm with the current pattern.

The bottom line is just because we haven’t been tracking storms, you should not let your guard down. We need to be prepared for a storm every year.