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I have already heard quite a bit of chatter about Hurricane Bill’s potential to impact Southern New England. So, is he a threat? The answer is “no”, unless Bill takes a dramatically different course than computer models are projecting.

Sure, there are some computer models that show Bill sitting precariously between Bermuda and Southern New England over the weekend. If someone wants to dream a bit, they can envision a scenario where Bill continues moving NW and plows into the Southern New England coast. Sounds plausible, until you look at the fact that it has not happened in the last 70+ years!

Here is a graphic of all the August/September hurricanes that have come within 75 miles of Providence. Notice where they all came from – the south. Not a single storm, that was as close to Bermuda as Bill is forecast to be, came close to Providence.

What about our friends on Nantucket? Could they suffer a direct hit from Hurricane Bill? If history is an indicator, then once again the answer is “no”. There was one storm that came within 75 miles of Nantucket after being in the general neighborhood of Bill’s forecast position. It was Hurricane Carol – no, not that Hurricane Carol. This storm was in 1953, a year before the other Hurricane Carol devastated Southern New England. You can see the 1953 Carol’s track on the image closest to the “B” in Bermuda. Hurricane Bill is forecast to take a track similar to 1953 Carol, with a pretty quick curve to the northeast after passing Bermuda.

So, is Bill not worth watching? I would not say that just yet. If the storm takes the projected track, it would be unprecedented for it to reach our shore, but it could have an impact on the fishing industry.

If the storm takes a track farther south than forecast, and does not come as close to Bermuda as currently projected, than it may eventually head our way. Right now, that does not appear to be a likely scenario, as many of the computer models agree on a more northerly track followed by a curve to the northeast.