Print This Post
Bill’s Track Not Far From Edouard in 1996
One of the things that can be helpful when looking at a storm’s potential track and impact is to look back at previous storms. As far as I can tell, the most recent storm with a track similar to Bill’s forecast track was Hurricane Edouard in 1996.
Southeast Massachusetts could get whacked if Bill tracks 150 miles west of the forecast
Hurricane Edouard, although not a landfalling hurricane in Southern New England, had a pretty significant impact in Southeastern Massachusetts. The storm brought hurricane-force gusts to the Cape and Islands. This comes directly from the National Hurricane Center’s recap of the storm:
The hurricane came close enough to New England to produce sustained winds of tropical storm force at Nantucket Island and the Cape Cod area. Wind gusts to hurricane force were reported at Nantucket. Table 3 lists selected surface observations from Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine. In addition, there were unofficial reports of wind gusts to 90 mph at Nantucket, 80 mph at Martha’s Vineyard, and 77 mph on Cape Cod.
The storm also delivered very heavy rain to Cape Cod and the Islands. Many places east of Bourne reported more than five inches of rain. The storm had a very sharp edge to the rain shield. There was only .27″ of rain at TF Green Airport.
At one point, a Hurricane Warning was posted from Watch Hill, RI around the MA coast to the Merrimack River. This was subsequently dropped as the hurricane force gusts did not stretch west of Cape Cod.
Between Providence and the Cape, there was an area of Tropical Storm force winds. New Bedford reported wind gusts of 50 mph.
Remember, in order for Bill to have an impact similar to Edouard, the storm would have to track about 150 miles west of its current forecast. That’s not a small amount, but it is certainly not unheard of, considering the storm is still over 200o miles offshore.