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Hurricane Bill has weakened slightly to a Category 3 with 125 mph wind, but slight intensification is forecast over the next couple of days. Bill has encountered a bit of dry air, but the satellite imagery was still showing an impressive eye at 9AM on Thursday.

Bill is moving northwest (305°) at about 18 mph. The storm is at roughly 22.5N -61W. Watch the track closely today. If the storm passes 65W before reaching 25N, then it is taking a track farther south than projected. A track farther south means a slower turn to the north, and most likely a track closer to New England.

The NHC forecast takes the storm east of New England, leaving the Cape and Islands with fringe effects including the chance of squally showers and some gusts over 30 mph. The one thing we can count on is seeing some rough surf and huge rollers this weekend as the storm heads north. Last night, a buoy within 100 miles of the storm center, reported waves of 36 feet!

I know it has been a “short” summer, and many people would like to keep their boats in the water a while longer to (hopefully) enjoy some nice late-summer/early-fall days on the bay. This storm, however, may necessitate some pretty quick action in getting the boat secured or pulled from the water – especially if it is moored/docked on the Cape/Islands. Mariners are advised to keep a very close eye on the forecast and conditions for the next 48-72 hours. One of the more “common sense” graphics produced by NHC is the Mariners 1-2-3 rule. Basically, anyone in the shaded area needs to pay close attention to the forecast and use caution before heading out on the water. We are in the shaded area.

Our forecast for Bill is still “near miss”, but we also emphasize that Bill is “must watch”. A 50+ westward shift of the track will have a big impact on the weather conditions for Eastern MA. 100+ miles to the west and RI will be in for some nasty weather on Sunday.

The storm is likely to be moving quickly (30 mph) when it passes by on Sunday morning. Bill should be closest to us early Sunday morning, and long gone by later Sunday afternoon.

Below are the latest wind probability for our area. Nantucket is looking at a 35% chance of 40+ mph wind. Providence is 21%. Hyannis is 29%

I will upload a screencast/video update on Hurricane Bill on abc6hurricane.com before 3PM Thursday.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  11(29)   X(29)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   6(12)   X(12)
HYANNIS MA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  12(35)   X(35)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8 )   7(15)   X(15)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   7(21)   X(21)
PROVIDENCE RI  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)
PROVIDENCE RI  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)