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Hurricane Bill is looking ragged again this evening. It will be interesting to see if it can get it together before starting to curve to the north-northeast, but at this rate I’d be surprised if Bill is more than a minimal hurricane in 30 hours.

The intensity forecast for this storm was awful. It was almost as bad as the track forecast was good. Kudos to the National Hurricane Center for the terrific track forecast. Intensity forecasting is the most difficult part of hurricane prediction, and this storm is a classic case of how wrong things can go. Based on yesterday’s forecast, Bill was supposed to be a Cat 4 monster right now, instead, he’s a wobbly Cat 2.

It looks like Bill has started on his weekend bender. In fact, when you watch the video notice the motion of the storm in the last six hours. It is not very far from due north. If the storm is heading due north in the next 12 hours, you can count on it passing several hundred miles to our east.

The storm is still going to throw big waves at us, but the odds of strong wind or heavy rain are low for all of Southern New England – even the Cape / Islands.

Bill will race away from us on Sunday, but a disturbance overhead may fire off some t-storms in RI and/or SE MA in the afternoon and evening. Here’s hoping they stay away from the Springsteen concert at the Comcast Center – I’m three rows outside of the overhang.