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Confidence Growing in Near-Miss Track
After looking at the latest computer guidance, I am more confident in a track that takes Hurricane Bill far enough to our east that there will be very little impact, if any, in Rhode Island, and a minor impact on the Cape and Islands.
Bill was not looking overly impressive just after midnight Friday. The storm is being bothered by dry air in its path. This should be a temporary issue, as the storm is turning north of the dry air, but it may be enough to weaken the storm a bit.
Hurricane Bill, although still Cat. 3, has encountered some dry air.
The storm is forecast to be over 83-85° water tomorrow. Wind shear should be relatively light. Some strengthening is possible.
About those computer models…the latest information suggests that Bill will pass far enough east that Rhode Island and interior SE Massachusetts will not have to worry about strong winds or Bill-related rain Saturday night or Sunday morning. The core of the wind and rain may brush against the Cape/Islands, but will most likely not make it west of the Cape Cod Canal.
In fact, there may not be a noticeable impact in RI. In other words, if you didn’t know that Bill was to our east, then you’d never suspect it. The breeze will briefly be out of the north in the morning, before shifting back to the west-southwest in the afternoon.
There is still the chance of showers on Saturday night and Sunday, but the rain would not be directly related to the storm. It could be enhanced a bit by the tropical moisture from the storm, but it is unlikely we’ll get into the rain-bands near the circulation.
Here’s a big caveat – the computer models, and the three paragraphs you just read, are all based on Bill’s current motion, and the speed/placement of the trough that is going to steer the storm. IF Bill takes a different track than forecast over the next 24 hours, the ultimate impact in the Northeast could change significantly. To this point, the storm has not done anything unexpected, and let’s hope that continues tomorrow.
Even with an easterly track, you can still bank on some big surf at area beaches over the weekend. Be careful!