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Danny Could Form by Midweek
Several computer models are indicating that the disturbance in the northern Caribbean may become a tropical system by midweek. Right now, the tropical wave is fighting off some wind shear and dry air, but it may be able to overcome that and develop in the warm waters of the southwest Atlantic.
If this disturbance does become Tropical Storm Danny, it would instantly become a “watcher” for the East Coast. Its position should be farther south and west than Bill ever was. The computer simulations do not make this into an overly intense system, but we’ve seen how much a difficult time the models have with tropical storm or hurricane intensity forecasts.
The National Hurricane Center has this disturbance in a 30-50% chance for development into a tropical system within 48 hours.
Farther south, just off the coast of Central America near Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, is a mass of thunderstorms that is capable of producing heavy rain. This system could end up similar to Claudette in that it develop near shore and moves inland quickly. It is no threat to the United States.