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Tropical Storm Fred, although strengthening, is not a threat to land. The odds of this storm ever becoming a threat are very low. The storm is 3500 miles from Providence. It is in the far Eastern Atlantic. The storm has strengthened to 70 mph today. It is moving W at 13 mph.

The forecast is for Fred to become a hurricane in the next 24 hours. The storm will gradually turn to the north over the next three days. Once it does so, it will most likely weaken as the conditions become less favorable for intensification.

Developing Storm to Our South

Of more interest than Fred is the storm that is sitting to our south over the Atlantic Ocean. This is a non-tropical storm right now, but some computer models intensify it into a tropical or sub-tropical (hybrid) system over the next two days. The storm is going to wobble east then west over the next 48 hours. There will likely be some rough surf and locally heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic from the Jersey Shore to Cape Hatteras.

Around here, the impact is less certain. At this point, I’d say we’ll see an increasing surf, and some gusty 20+ mph wind along the coast tomorrow through early Friday. Forecasting the rain is much more difficult. A strong area of high pressure (dry air) is trying to nudge to the south from Eastern Canada. That high pressure system should be enough to keep the rain away tomorrow. The pressure difference between the High and the Low (storm) will create the gusty breeze.

Although the High will win the battle tomorrow, it will most likely lose the war. The storm should get close enough to bring rain showers Thursday into Friday. Right now, it appears we’ll be spared the heaviest rain, which should be to our west and southwest.