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Odds Stacked Against a Hyperactive Season
Everything seemed to be coming together for a hyperactive hurricane season: very warm water in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, a developing La Nina in the Eastern Pacific, light trade winds. Yes, everything is coming together except for the actual storms.
Through the first two months of hurricane season there have been two named storms. That is exactly what we would expect during that time in a normal year. Of course, this year was predicted by just about everyone (including me) to be more active than a typical year, and some were predicting a year that would rival some of the most active on record.
A normal start to the season doesn’t necessarily mean a normal year. There were some years that turned out to be active even when there were two or fewer storms through August 1. Of the 12 most active years on record, only four have seen two or fewer named storms through August 1. None of those years is in the top four most active seasons.
| Year | Total Storms | Storms Before Aug. 1 |
| 2005 | 28 | 7 |
| 1933 | 21 | 5 |
| 1995 | 19 | 5 |
| 1887 | 19 | 5 |
| 1969 | 18 | 2 |
| 2008 | 16 | 4 |
| 2003 | 16 | 4 |
| 1936 | 16 | 5 |
| 2007 | 15 | 3 |
| 2004 | 15 | 1 |
| 2001 | 15 | 1 |
| 2000 | 15 | 0 |
From a purely historical perspective, it would be unprecedented to have the season start this slowly and end with more than 18 storms. Then again, the some of the seasonal forecasts were for something historic to happen, so maybe things will get hyperactive in the next two months.
My forecast was for 15 named storms – certainly an active year, but not one of the top five on record. At this point, I’m a bit concerned about the forecast because the tropics are so quiet right now. I am, however, somewhat comforted by the recent history (2007, 2004, 2001, 2000) of slow starts and strong finishes. If I had forecast 18 or more storms I’d be very concerned about the lack of activity so far, and I’d most likely be scaling back my projection.
-Fred