Through the first two months of hurricane season there have been two named storms. That is exactly what we would expect during that time in a normal year. Of course, this year was predicted by just about everyone (including me) to be more active than a typical year, and some were predicting a year that would rival some of the most active on record.

A normal start to the season doesn’t necessarily mean a normal year. There were some years that turned out to be active even when there were two or fewer storms through August 1. Of the 12 most active years on record, only four have seen two or fewer named storms through August 1. None of those years is in the top four most active seasons.

From a purely historical perspective, it would be unprecedented to have the season start this slowly and end with more than 18 storms. Then again, the some of the seasonal forecasts were for something historic to happen, so maybe things will get hyperactive in the next two months.

My forecast was for 15 named storms – certainly an active year, but not one of the top five on record. At this point, I’m a bit concerned about the forecast because the tropics are so quiet right now. I am, however, somewhat comforted by the recent history (2007, 2004, 2001, 2000) of slow starts and strong finishes. If I had forecast 18 or more storms I’d be very concerned about the lack of activity so far, and I’d most likely be scaling back my projection.

-Fred

The computer model used in the prediction has a decent track record. Two years ago, the model accurately predicted there would be 15 named storms. Last year, the forecast was for 8 to 15 named storms, but only nine named storms developed. There was a caveat with the forecast that called for 6 to 13 storms if a strong El Nino developed, and it did develop, so the forecast was actually quite good.

Click here to see the forecast.

Indications are the oil spill will be drawn into the Loop Current, then brought into the Gulf Stream which will quickly draw the oil through the Florida Keys and to the east coast of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

The oil will likely remain off the Southern New England coast as the Gulf Stream is a few hundred miles offshore of our coast.

This computer simulation was conducted six different times using a variety of ocean conditions. When you watch the simulation, notice how the process accelerates over time. Once some of the slick is caught in the Gulf Stream, it quickly spreads into the Atlantic.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=pE-1G_476nA

NEW ENGLAND HURRICANES OF NOTE

FRAMINGHAM, MA – Although the Hurricane Season in New England is defined as June 1^st through November 30^th, the vast majority of the 40 tropical systems that have impacted our region over the past century have struck during the months of August and September.  Because Massachusetts is such a relatively small state, it is important to realize that these are not just ‘coastal events’, but, in fact, everyone in the Commonwealth can be severely impacted by a major storm.

“New England is in the unenviable position of receiving all three types of Hurricane threats,” states Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) Acting Director Kurt Schwartz. “Depending upon the storm’s track and landfall location, we can experience coastal inundation from storm surge, widespread inland river flooding, and widespread wind damage.”

To best prepare ourselves for the future, it is important to revisit the past, and examine a dozen of the most notable New England Hurricanes and their catastrophic impact upon our region.

The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635
August 25, 1635

This was the first historical record of an intense hurricane striking New England. Some refer to it as America’s first recorded natural disaster. Likely a Cape Verde-type storm, the highest winds have been estimated at Category 3 or greater at landfall, with winds of 115-plus mph. The storm’s eye is believed to have passed between Boston and Plymouth causing at least 46 casualties. The tide in Narragansett Bay was reported to be 14’ above normal, with even higher tides reported throughout the area Reports from the journal of Governor William Bradford describing the of dozens of Native Americans, the toppling of thousands of trees and the flattening of houses suggest that this storm may have possessed even greater intensity than the storms of 1815 and 1938.

The Great September Gale of 1815
September 23, 1815

Called the Great September Gale, because the word ‘hurricane’ was not yet current in American English, this storm was the first major hurricane to impact New England in 180 years. It initiated in the West Indies, growing to a Category 3 with winds of 135 mph.  After crossing Long Island, New York, the storm came ashore at Saybrook, Connecticut, funneling an 11-foot storm surge up

Narragansett Bay.  There, it destroyed 500 houses, 35 ships and flooded Providence, Rhode Island.  Impacting Central and Coastal Massachusetts, ‘The Great Gale’ destroyed the bridge over the Neponset River, connecting Dorchester and Milton, Massachusetts. At least 38 deaths have been attributed to this disaster.

The September Gale of 1869
September 8, 1869

The ‘September Gale’ was first observed in the Bahamas.  It reached Category 3 until ultimately making landfall in Rhode Island just west of Buzzards Bay, reaching the coast at Boston, and finally dissipating in Northern Maine.  This storm was very compact, but intense.  It was reported to have been less than miles wide, but it caused extensive damage in Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Maine. Fortunately, its arrival coincided with low tide lessening the storm surge and resulting damage.

The Great New England Hurricane of 1938
September 21, 1938

This Category 5, which has also been dubbed “The Long Island Express”, was the first major hurricane to strike New England since 1869. Having formed off of the coast of Africa, it was first detected in the Tropical Atlantic.  As it slowly moved northward, when it was 100 miles east of North Carolina it suddenly accelerated to a forward motion of 60 to 70 mph. Without warning, it made landfall as a Category 3, during an astronomically high tide along Long Island and the Connecticut coast. The Blue Hill Observatory, outside of Boston, measured sustained winds of 121 mph, with gusts of 183 mph. Providence Rhode Island reported sustained winds of 100 mph, gusting to 125 mph. Storm tides of 14 to 18 feet inundated portions of the coast from Long Island to Connecticut with 18 to 25 foot tides reported as far east as Cape Cod.  Narragansett Bay experienced a destructive storm surge of 12 to 14 feet.  The hurricane’s heavy rains of 3” to 6” combined with the effects of the frontal system produced rainfall of 10” to 17” causing severe flooding, particularly in areas of Western Massachusetts and along the Connecticut River.  Downtown Providence, R.I. was impacted by a 20-foot storm surge.  Sections of the Towns of Falmouth and Truro on Cape Cod were under 8 feet of water. The widespread destruction resulting from this storm included 600 deaths and 1,700 injuries.  Over $400 million in damage occurred, including 9,000 homes and businesses lost and 15,000 damaged.  Damage to the Southern New England fishing fleet was catastrophic, as over 6,000 vessels were either destroyed or severely damaged.

The Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944
September 14-15, 1944

Sometimes compared to the Great Hurricane of 1938, this storm was first detected northeast of the Lesser Antilles. The Miami Hurricane Warning Office designated the storm, as such to emphasize its size and intensity.  This may be the first time a n ‘official’ name was give to a storm by the office which would evolve into the present-day National Hurricane Center. From there, it hugged the United States coast, crossing Long Island, New York, the Rhode Island Coast, emerged into Massachusetts Bay and impacted Maine.  With 140 mph winds, this Category 4, produced hurricane force winds over a diameter of 600 miles causing over $100 million damage.  70-foot high waves were also reported. Up to 11” of rain fell in areas of New England. 390 deaths were attributed to this hurricane, most of which were at sea.  The relatively low number of land deaths (46) was attributed to the well-executed warnings and evacuations. It wreaked havoc on World War II shipping, sinking a U.S. Navy destroyer and minesweeper, as well as two U.S. Coast Guard cutters.

Hurricane Dog
September 11-12, 1950

A strong Category 5, Hurricane Dog reached a peak intensity of 185 mph.  The storm was named ‘Dog’, from the Joint Army/Navy Phonetic Alphabet (the 4^th named storm of the season). First observed east of the Lesser Antilles on August 30^th, this was a major hurricane that never actually made landfall, passing within 200 miles of Cape Cod. In fact it had weakened to barely hurricane strength as it passed Nantucket. However, it was responsible for the deaths of at least a dozen fishermen off the New England coast. It also caused about $3 million damage.  Fortunately 17 naval vessels had relocated to avoid the storm. To this day, it retains the record for the longest continuous duration for a Category 5 Atlantic Hurricane of 60 hours, from September 5^th through September 8^th.  Dog also fluctuated between Category 4 and 5 strength on four different occasions, which is also a record.

Hurricane Carol
August 31, 1954

This compact, but powerful, borderline Category 3 battered New England, killing 68.  With 100 mph winds, gusting up to 135 mph, Carol caused over $460 million in damage, destroying 4,000 homes, 3,500 cars, and over 3,000 boats. This was arguably the most destructive storm to hit Southern New England since 1938. It formed as a tropical storm near the Bahamas, making brief landfall along the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  The storm passed over Long Island, just east of the Hurricane of 1938 landfall, through Central New England into Canada, bringing a storm surge of 14.4 feet to Narragansett Bay and New Bedford Harbor. Over 6” of rain fell. Water depths reached 12 feet in downtown Providence, Rhode Island.  Some consider Carol the worst storm in the history of Cape Cod. All of Rhode Island, much of Eastern Connecticut, and much of Eastern Massachusetts lost power, with a 95% loss of telephone service. The storm was still producing hurricane-force winds as it traveled through New Hampshire and Maine. Notably, it knocked down the spire of the Old North Church. The name ‘Carol’ was the first Atlantic hurricane to be retired.

Hurricane Edna
September 11, 1954

Edna arrived right on the heels of Hurricane Carol. It formed off of Barbados, reaching Category 3 strength at the Outer Banks of North Carolina, with its highest winds of 120 mph. Edna tracked just east of Carol’s track. The storm passed over Eastern Cape Cod and the Islands, during a rising high tide, where peak gusts were recorded at 120 mph.  Storm surges of 6’ were common. Its eastern track, which resulted in heavy rain and major inland flooding, adding 5” to 7” of rain, to Carol’s previous 6”. The storm was responsible for over 2 deaths and $40 million damage across the region.  Ultimately, it made landfall near Eastport, Maine, becoming one of Maine’s worst-ever hurricanes.  The name ‘Edna’ has been retired.

Hurricane Diane
August 17-19, 1955

Born in the tropical Atlantic, this storm reached Category 3 status, as it followed the path of Hurricane Connie of 5 days earlier. Maximum winds were recorded at 120 mph. The cooler air behind Connie became entrained in Diane’s circulation causing it to steadily weaken to a Tropical Storm as it reached the Southern New England coast. However, Diane dropped heavy rain of 10” to 20”, setting flood records throughout the region.  Diane was recognized as the wettest tropical cyclone to impact New England. The storm was blamed for nearly 200 deaths.  The $832 million damage qualified it as the most costly hurricane in U.S. history until Hurricane Betsy in 1965. The name ‘Diana’ has been retired.

Hurricane Donna
September 12, 1960

Hurricane Donna was a Category 5 Cape Verde-type hurricane that impacted most of the Caribbean Islands and every single state on the U.S. Eastern seaboard. It recorded 160 mph winds with gusts up to 200 mph. Donna holds the record for retaining major hurricane status of Category 3 or better in the Atlantic basin for the longest period of time.  From September 2^nd to September 11^th it sustained winds of 115 mph as it roamed the Atlantic for 17 days.  This storm is the only one on record to produce hurricane-force winds in Florida, the Mid-Atlantic States and New England. Donna hit New England in Southeast Connecticut with sustained winds of 100 mph, gusting to 125-130 mph, cutting diagonally through the region to Maine. It produced pockets of 4” to 8” of rain as well as 5 to 10-foot storm surges. The storm ultimately killed 364, and caused over  $500 million in damage.  The name ‘Donna’ has been retired.

Hurricane Gloria
September 27, 1985

Hurricane Gloria was a powerful Category 4 Cape Verde-type storm that prowled the Atlantic for 13 days, with highest winds of 145 mph. Hugging the coastline, as it made its way north, Gloria crossed Long Island, making landfall at Milford, Connecticut. As it continued northeastward through New England, it became extratropical over Maine on the 28^th.  In spite of arriving during low tide, it did cause severe beach erosion along the New England coast, as well as the loss of many piers and coastal roads.  There was a moderate storm surge of 6.8 feet in New Bedford, Mass. The storm left over 2,000,000 people without power. It dropped up to 6” of rain in Massachusetts, causing many flooding issues in the region.  Overall, casualties were relatively low with 8 deaths, but damage reached $900 million. The name ‘Gloria’ has been retired.

Hurricane Bob
August 19, 1991

Formed in the Bahamas, Hurricane Bob made landfall in New England near New Bedford, Mass. with 115 mph winds, cutting a path across Southeastern Massachusetts towards the Gulf of Maine. Peak winds of in excess of 100 mph were recorded in the Towns of Brewster and Truro on Cape Cod.  Over 60% of the residents of Southeastern Massachusetts and Southeastern Rhode Island lost power.  There were 4 different reports of tornados as Bob came ashore. Buzzards Bay saw a 10- to 15-foot storm surge. A number of south-facing beaches on the islands of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard lost 50 feet of beach to erosion. Up to 7” of rain was reported to have fallen throughout New England. Bob was blamed for 18 storm-related deaths. The damage total for Southern New England was set at $1 billion, with $2.5 billion overall damage from the storm.  The name ‘Bob’ has been retired.