Through the first two months of hurricane season there have been two named storms. That is exactly what we would expect during that time in a normal year. Of course, this year was predicted by just about everyone (including me) to be more active than a typical year, and some were predicting a year that would rival some of the most active on record.

A normal start to the season doesn’t necessarily mean a normal year. There were some years that turned out to be active even when there were two or fewer storms through August 1. Of the 12 most active years on record, only four have seen two or fewer named storms through August 1. None of those years is in the top four most active seasons.

From a purely historical perspective, it would be unprecedented to have the season start this slowly and end with more than 18 storms. Then again, the some of the seasonal forecasts were for something historic to happen, so maybe things will get hyperactive in the next two months.

My forecast was for 15 named storms – certainly an active year, but not one of the top five on record. At this point, I’m a bit concerned about the forecast because the tropics are so quiet right now. I am, however, somewhat comforted by the recent history (2007, 2004, 2001, 2000) of slow starts and strong finishes. If I had forecast 18 or more storms I’d be very concerned about the lack of activity so far, and I’d most likely be scaling back my projection.

-Fred

The National Hurricane Center track is well to our east on Sunday morning, but with a storm this big, ABC6 Stormtracker Chief Meteorologist Fred Campagna says it is too soon to sound the “all clear”. Watch the video update below.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=DhDVyFQ8ITs

This video from Jim Corbin ( heard briefly on the phone and seen very briefly looking out the window!) shows Hurricane Bob on August 19, 1991 affecting Westboro, Mass which is 30 miles NNW of Providence. The storm’s center at the time was about about 60 miles to the southeast. This put Westboro on the WEAKER WIND SIDE..but also on the HEAVIER RAIN SIDE. Though winds in the area averaged 25-65 mph for several hours snapping a lot of branches…..it was the 6-8 inches of rain that turned dry gullies into rivers of water. Water pouring off the roof was relentless. The view was generally west..so you can see the rain blowing right to left indicating northeast to north gales as the storm passed to the east.

Sure, there are some computer models that show Bill sitting precariously between Bermuda and Southern New England over the weekend. If someone wants to dream a bit, they can envision a scenario where Bill continues moving NW and plows into the Southern New England coast. Sounds plausible, until you look at the fact that it has not happened in the last 70+ years!

Here is a graphic of all the August/September hurricanes that have come within 75 miles of Providence. Notice where they all came from – the south. Not a single storm, that was as close to Bermuda as Bill is forecast to be, came close to Providence.

Tropical systems within 75 miles of Providence (Since 1938)

What about our friends on Nantucket? Could they suffer a direct hit from Hurricane Bill? If history is an indicator, then once again the answer is “no”. There was one storm that came within 75 miles of Nantucket after being in the general neighborhood of Bill’s forecast position. It was Hurricane Carol – no, not that Hurricane Carol. This storm was in 1953, a year before the other Hurricane Carol devastated Southern New England. You can see the 1953 Carol’s track on the image closest to the “B” in Bermuda. Hurricane Bill is forecast to take a track similar to 1953 Carol, with a pretty quick curve to the northeast after passing Bermuda.

Tropical Systems within 75 miles of Nantucket (Since 1938)

So, is Bill not worth watching? I would not say that just yet. If the storm takes the projected track, it would be unprecedented for it to reach our shore, but it could have an impact on the fishing industry.

If the storm takes a track farther south than forecast, and does not come as close to Bermuda as currently projected, than it may eventually head our way. Right now, that does not appear to be a likely scenario, as many of the computer models agree on a more northerly track followed by a curve to the northeast.

A couple of factors may be impeding the storm’s development. The first factor is a lot of dry air and Saharan dust in the vicinity of the storm. You can see all the dry air in this image below on the left. Click the image for a larger view. The dry air is colored red.

The image on the right shows the amount of wind shear (turning of the wind with height) that the storm is encountering. Wind shear inhibits the development of tropical systems. Light winds in the upper atmosphere are favorable for storms to develop. This storm, although not hitting extremely strong wind shear, is entering an area of increasing wind shear. This is most likely contributing to the storm’s slow development.

The third image is sea surface temperature. You can see that ocean temps are warm throughout the Eastern Atlantic near the storm. The sea surface temperature is not a negative contributor to the storm’s development.

The storm is still likely to reach Tropical Storm (Ana) strength within 24 hours. It may not, however, become a hurricane. The long-range computer models are not too bullish on the intensity forecast. Many of the projections keep the storm between 50-65 mph for several days to come.

The Tropical Wave that is off the coast of Africa is showing more potential to develop. At this point, the National Hurricane Center says there is about a 30-50% chance that this becomes a tropic cyclone in the next 48 hours.

So, with the late start and the forecast of an average season, does that mean we are off the hook for any serious hurricanes this year? Absolutely not.  2004 turned out to be an above average year, and also a deadly one, with the likes of Charley, Frances, Hermine, Ivan, and Jeanne contributing to over 3100 deaths and almost $50 billion in damage.

Another late starting season was 1991. There was an unamed subtropical storm in April. The first named storm of the year arrived in mid-August, and it was a whopper. Hurricane Andrew roared through South Florida as a category 5 storm.  It emerged into the Gulf of Mexico, ultimately making a second landfall in the Louisiana Bayou. Before Katrina, Andrew was the benchmark for monster storms in recent years.

1938, 1954, 1976, 1985, 1991 – all years when a hurricane has impacted our area. They are also years where the hurricane activity on the whole was at all or below normal for the season.

The number of “ducks on the pond” is one thing, but, for us it is much more about the pattern that brings hurricanes from the tropics up the Eastern Seaboard. For most of this summer, that pattern has been favorable for bringing a storm our way. There has been a slight pattern shift in the past two weeks, but it is still possible to see a storm with the current pattern.

The bottom line is just because we haven’t been tracking storms, you should not let your guard down. We need to be prepared for a storm every year.