Through the first two months of hurricane season there have been two named storms. That is exactly what we would expect during that time in a normal year. Of course, this year was predicted by just about everyone (including me) to be more active than a typical year, and some were predicting a year that would rival some of the most active on record.

A normal start to the season doesn’t necessarily mean a normal year. There were some years that turned out to be active even when there were two or fewer storms through August 1. Of the 12 most active years on record, only four have seen two or fewer named storms through August 1. None of those years is in the top four most active seasons.

From a purely historical perspective, it would be unprecedented to have the season start this slowly and end with more than 18 storms. Then again, the some of the seasonal forecasts were for something historic to happen, so maybe things will get hyperactive in the next two months.

My forecast was for 15 named storms – certainly an active year, but not one of the top five on record. At this point, I’m a bit concerned about the forecast because the tropics are so quiet right now. I am, however, somewhat comforted by the recent history (2007, 2004, 2001, 2000) of slow starts and strong finishes. If I had forecast 18 or more storms I’d be very concerned about the lack of activity so far, and I’d most likely be scaling back my projection.

-Fred

The computer model used in the prediction has a decent track record. Two years ago, the model accurately predicted there would be 15 named storms. Last year, the forecast was for 8 to 15 named storms, but only nine named storms developed. There was a caveat with the forecast that called for 6 to 13 storms if a strong El Nino developed, and it did develop, so the forecast was actually quite good.

Click here to see the forecast.

NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season

An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. As with every hurricane season, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

• 14 to 23 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 8 to 14 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 3 to 7 could be major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

“If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.“The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”

The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Expected factors supporting this outlook are:

• Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms. Wind shear, which can tear apart storms, will be weaker since El Niño in the eastern Pacific has dissipated. Strong wind shear helped suppress storm development during the 2009 hurricane season.

• Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic. Record warm temperatures – up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average – are now present in this region.

• High activity era continues. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought favorable ocean and atmospheric conditions in sync, leading to more active hurricane seasons. Eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top ten for the most named storms with 2005 in first place with 28 named storms.

“The main uncertainty in this outlook is how much above normal the season will be. Whether or not we approach the high end of the predicted ranges depends partly on whether or not La Niña develops this summer,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “At present we are in a neutral state, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for La Niña to develop.”

“FEMA is working across the administration and with our state and local partners to ensure we’re prepared for hurricane season,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. “But we can only be as prepared as the public, so it’s important that families and businesses in coastal communities take steps now to be ready. These include developing a communications plan, putting together a kit, and staying informed of the latest forecasts and local emergency plans. You can’t control when a hurricane or other emergency may happen, but you can make sure you’re ready.”

The President recently designated May 23 through 29 as National Hurricane Preparedness Week. NOAA and FEMA encourage those living in hurricane-prone states to use this time to review their overall preparedness. More information on individual and family preparedness can be found athttp://www.Ready.gov and http://www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.

NOAA scientists will continue to monitor evolving conditions in the tropics and will issue an updated hurricane outlook in early August, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Visit us at http://www.noaa.gov or on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/usnoaagov.

On the Web:

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center: http://ww.hurricanes.gov

FEMA: http://www.fema.gov and http://www.ready.gov

Elsewhere, there is a persistent area of low pressure continues to spin near the Gulf Coast, bringing soaking rains to the Southeastern US. This is not a tropical system, and it does not look like anything will be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days.

There are no tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa.

The storm was only the second hurricane of the season. A low number, especially considering that tomorrow is the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.

Right now, the National Hurricane Center is not monitoring any potential hot spots for tropical development. There is, however, a non-tropical storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast that is generating a lot of waves and wind. Seas are 7-10′ at the offshore buoys, and the wind is gusting over 35 mph.

The storm has been forced to our south by a strong area of high pressure which dropped out of Eastern Canada. The high will keep the storm to our south for about the next 36 hours – until Friday morning. Some rain is likely Friday into Saturday as the storm slowly spins east.

The heaviest rain from the storm is likely over the Mid-Atlantic coast from Atlantic City through Delaware and coastal Maryland. Some places could pick up more than 4″ of rain. The storm will not have quite as much juice as it moves north, but locally heavy rain is possible in northern New Jersey through coastal Connecticut.

The impact around here should be minimal – just some much-needed rain. I expect showers off and on from midday Friday through midday Saturday. Temps will be in the 60s for the next three days. We should bounce back on Sunday with some sun and highs in the 70s.

The forecast is for Fred to become a hurricane in the next 24 hours. The storm will gradually turn to the north over the next three days. Once it does so, it will most likely weaken as the conditions become less favorable for intensification.

Developing Storm to Our South

Of more interest than Fred is the storm that is sitting to our south over the Atlantic Ocean. This is a non-tropical storm right now, but some computer models intensify it into a tropical or sub-tropical (hybrid) system over the next two days. The storm is going to wobble east then west over the next 48 hours. There will likely be some rough surf and locally heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic from the Jersey Shore to Cape Hatteras.

Around here, the impact is less certain. At this point, I’d say we’ll see an increasing surf, and some gusty 20+ mph wind along the coast tomorrow through early Friday. Forecasting the rain is much more difficult. A strong area of high pressure (dry air) is trying to nudge to the south from Eastern Canada. That high pressure system should be enough to keep the rain away tomorrow. The pressure difference between the High and the Low (storm) will create the gusty breeze.

Although the High will win the battle tomorrow, it will most likely lose the war. The storm should get close enough to bring rain showers Thursday into Friday. Right now, it appears we’ll be spared the heaviest rain, which should be to our west and southwest.