The forecast from the Penn State University Earth System Science Center (ESSC) for this year’s hurricane season is for 19-28 storms with a best estimate of 23. The computer model used in the prediction has a decent track record. Two years ago, the model accurately predicted there would be 15 named storms. Last year, the [...]

The tropics are unusually quiet for the middle of September. What’s left of Fred is drifting through the Atlantic north of the Caribbean Islands. It is not expected to regenerate, although I have seen one computer model that brings it back just east of Florida late in the weekend. Elsewhere, there is a persistent area [...]

Tropical Storm Fred, although strengthening, is not a threat to land. The odds of this storm ever becoming a threat are very low. The storm is 3500 miles from Providence. It is in the far Eastern Atlantic. The storm has strengthened to 70 mph today. It is moving W at 13 mph. The forecast is [...]

Several computer models are indicating that the disturbance in the northern Caribbean may become a tropical system by midweek. Right now, the tropical wave is fighting off some wind shear and dry air, but it may be able to overcome that and develop in the warm waters of the southwest Atlantic. If this disturbance does [...]

ABC6 Chief Stormtracker Meteorologist Fred Campagna takes a look at the computer model trend in the past 12-18 hours, and why it is still a very close call for Southern New England. One thing is for certain, Hurricane Bill is going to generate huge waves in the Atlantic. Check out the what Wave Prediction model [...]