The computer model used in the prediction has a decent track record. Two years ago, the model accurately predicted there would be 15 named storms. Last year, the forecast was for 8 to 15 named storms, but only nine named storms developed. There was a caveat with the forecast that called for 6 to 13 storms if a strong El Nino developed, and it did develop, so the forecast was actually quite good.

Click here to see the forecast.

Elsewhere, there is a persistent area of low pressure continues to spin near the Gulf Coast, bringing soaking rains to the Southeastern US. This is not a tropical system, and it does not look like anything will be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico in the coming days.

There are no tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa.

The forecast is for Fred to become a hurricane in the next 24 hours. The storm will gradually turn to the north over the next three days. Once it does so, it will most likely weaken as the conditions become less favorable for intensification.

Developing Storm to Our South

Of more interest than Fred is the storm that is sitting to our south over the Atlantic Ocean. This is a non-tropical storm right now, but some computer models intensify it into a tropical or sub-tropical (hybrid) system over the next two days. The storm is going to wobble east then west over the next 48 hours. There will likely be some rough surf and locally heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic from the Jersey Shore to Cape Hatteras.

Around here, the impact is less certain. At this point, I’d say we’ll see an increasing surf, and some gusty 20+ mph wind along the coast tomorrow through early Friday. Forecasting the rain is much more difficult. A strong area of high pressure (dry air) is trying to nudge to the south from Eastern Canada. That high pressure system should be enough to keep the rain away tomorrow. The pressure difference between the High and the Low (storm) will create the gusty breeze.

Although the High will win the battle tomorrow, it will most likely lose the war. The storm should get close enough to bring rain showers Thursday into Friday. Right now, it appears we’ll be spared the heaviest rain, which should be to our west and southwest.

If this disturbance does become Tropical Storm Danny, it would instantly become a “watcher” for the East Coast. Its position should be farther south and west than Bill ever was. The computer simulations do not make this into an overly intense system, but we’ve seen how much a difficult time the models have with tropical storm or hurricane intensity forecasts.

The National Hurricane Center has this disturbance in a 30-50% chance for development into a tropical system within 48 hours.

Farther south, just off the coast of Central America near Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, is a mass of thunderstorms that is capable of producing heavy rain. This system could end up similar to Claudette in that it develop near shore and moves inland quickly. It is no threat to the United States.

One thing is for certain, Hurricane Bill is going to generate huge waves in the Atlantic. Check out the what Wave Prediction model is forecasting.