The storm was only the second hurricane of the season. A low number, especially considering that tomorrow is the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.

Right now, the National Hurricane Center is not monitoring any potential hot spots for tropical development. There is, however, a non-tropical storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast that is generating a lot of waves and wind. Seas are 7-10′ at the offshore buoys, and the wind is gusting over 35 mph.

The storm has been forced to our south by a strong area of high pressure which dropped out of Eastern Canada. The high will keep the storm to our south for about the next 36 hours – until Friday morning. Some rain is likely Friday into Saturday as the storm slowly spins east.

The heaviest rain from the storm is likely over the Mid-Atlantic coast from Atlantic City through Delaware and coastal Maryland. Some places could pick up more than 4″ of rain. The storm will not have quite as much juice as it moves north, but locally heavy rain is possible in northern New Jersey through coastal Connecticut.

The impact around here should be minimal – just some much-needed rain. I expect showers off and on from midday Friday through midday Saturday. Temps will be in the 60s for the next three days. We should bounce back on Sunday with some sun and highs in the 70s.

The forecast is for Fred to become a hurricane in the next 24 hours. The storm will gradually turn to the north over the next three days. Once it does so, it will most likely weaken as the conditions become less favorable for intensification.

Developing Storm to Our South

Of more interest than Fred is the storm that is sitting to our south over the Atlantic Ocean. This is a non-tropical storm right now, but some computer models intensify it into a tropical or sub-tropical (hybrid) system over the next two days. The storm is going to wobble east then west over the next 48 hours. There will likely be some rough surf and locally heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic from the Jersey Shore to Cape Hatteras.

Around here, the impact is less certain. At this point, I’d say we’ll see an increasing surf, and some gusty 20+ mph wind along the coast tomorrow through early Friday. Forecasting the rain is much more difficult. A strong area of high pressure (dry air) is trying to nudge to the south from Eastern Canada. That high pressure system should be enough to keep the rain away tomorrow. The pressure difference between the High and the Low (storm) will create the gusty breeze.

Although the High will win the battle tomorrow, it will most likely lose the war. The storm should get close enough to bring rain showers Thursday into Friday. Right now, it appears we’ll be spared the heaviest rain, which should be to our west and southwest.

********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************
LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                     RAINFALL       OF
                     (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT
MASSACHUSETTS
...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   ACUSHNET              2.91   615 AM  8/23   SPOTTER
   NEW BEDFORD           2.45   625 AM  8/23   ASOS SINCE MIDNIGHT
...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
   KINGSTON              3.74   700 AM  8/23   COCORAHS
   PEMBROKE              3.09   415 AM  8/23   AMATEUR RADIO
   MARSHFIELD            2.78   453 AM  8/23   AMATEUR RADIO
   SCITUATE              2.76   415 AM  8/23   AMATEUR RADIO
   HALIFAX               2.52   654 AM  8/23   SPOTTER

The storm did not feature strong winds, as the highest gusts on land were still less than tropical storm force. The stronger side of a fast-moving hurricane like Bill is the eastern side – thanks to the forward momentum of the storm and the counter-clockwise turning of the wind.

The storm brought rough seas and pounding surf a day before its arrival, and it looks like the show of high surf will continue on the day it departs.

• Here is a webcam view of the surf from Wellfleet.
• Coast Guard Beach Cam
• Surf Cam in Narragansett
• More Southern New England Wave Cameras

Notice the temperature graph below. Bill definitely churned up the water. The water temperature fell by almost 10° in a few days at this buoy 15 miles east of Boston.

The water temperature dipped from the mid 70s to the mid 60s

Bill is going to pound Nova Scotia and Newfoundland today. If you want to keep track of some of the buoy observations near Bill – just click here.

Midnight
In honor of Bruce Springsteen, I’ll come out for an encore…

I just stepped outside for a minute after getting home. I wanted to experience just a small bit of this storm that I’ve spent almost every waking hour tracking for the past week. Of course, in Bristol, the effects are fringe at best, but there was a light breeze and some “misty rain” – another nod to Springsteen.

The rain band across the lower Cape is pretty impressive. It’s crossing the Canal into Buzzards Bay and SE MA. It may make it into RI overnight. Any Bill-related rain will be gone from the Cape by mid-morning tomorrow.

The wind will peak between now and 8AM on the Cape and Islands. It won’t be very impressive. Probably a few gusts over 30 mph.

For anyone who wants to turn the page in a hurry, there may be another storm brewing in the Western Atlantic by midweek. A disturbance will move through the northern Caribbean islands, and some models show a tropical system developing a bit west of where Bill was a few days ago.

11PM
Update on ABC6 News!

20-25 ft seas SE of Nantucket. Wind gusting over 30 mph on Nantucket, to about 45 mph 50 miles southeast of Nantucket.

Heavy, but thin, rain band over the Cape and Martha’s Vineyard.

Thanks for following the storm with me all day. It’s been a fun ride forecasting the storm, and then watching it evolve today. As always, it was a great learning experience, and hopefully next time the forecast will be even more accurate.

10PM
Water was up to the base of the boardwalk at Scarborough Beach in Narragansett at the time of high tide this evening. Tides are running astronomically high this week. There will probably be some minor flooding in a few spots on the Cape/Islands.

Minimal wind influence from Bill so far. Winds on the Cape/Islands are 12-25 mph at all land stations. The Nantucket buoy is gusting to 31 mph, and that buoy 55 miles south of Nantucket is seeing 40+ mph wind gusts.

The wave observations are really getting up there. The buoy south of Nantucket is up to 25 feet, and a buoy south of Long Island is reporting 21 foot waves.

There is a rain band across Buzzards Bay. You can track it using the interactive Stormtracker Radar on ABC6Hurricane.com.

Make sure "Storm Tracks" is checked, then click on the thunderstorm icon

9PM
Thin band of rain from the Cape through Martha’s Vineyard. During the afternoon and early evening, most of these bands had a hard time holding together as they moved west.

Heaviest rain band of the day is developing about 75 miles south of Nantucket. It’ll be interesting to see if it can spin back into Nantucket and the Cape. Short-range computer model says no, but I’m not convinced.

Hourly observations have not changed much. Still 36 mph gusts and 22 foot waves 55 miles south of Nantucket.

8PM
Wind, rain, and waves continue to pick up just south-southeast of Nantucket. Buoy observation of 22 ft. waves 54 NM SSE of Nantucket. Watch the video update for more.

7:30PM
Bill 250 miles SSE of Nantucket. Max winds still 85 mph. Moving north (360°) at 24 mph.

7PM
Seas now 12-16′ at offshore buoys. Wind gusting to 36 mph at buoy 54NM SSE of Nantucket. Nantucket gusting to 23 mph. Bill is cruising right along. It looks like a rain band is spinning off the storm and will flirt with the Cape and Nantucket.

There are currently no t-storms in Southeastern New England.

Bruce Springsteen & the E Street Band take the stage at the Comcast Center in about 15 minutes. Wish I was there, but very happy that I’ll be there tomorrow night!

6PM
Full coverage on ABC6 News!

4:30PM

Latest on Bill:
37.1N 68.8W (300 miles SSE of Nantucket)
N at 24 mph
Winds are down to 85 mph

The storm should cruise by tonight. It will be accelerating away from us tomorrow morning. Squally weather still possible tonight on the Cape/Islands. Storm should be about 150 miles from Nantucket at about 2AM.

3:30PM
Bill is starting to veer a bit east of north as he picks up a bit of forward speed. Rain bands should continue to spin into the Cape and Islands this evening. Bill will be north of SNE by dawn tomorrow.

I’m heading into work. Another update in about an hour.

2:30 PM
Rain band has reached Nantucket. Band continues to move through Nantucket Sound and may hit the Lower Cape by 3PM. Elsewhere in Southern New England, it’s more of the same – partly sunny, warm, and very muggy. FYI – the temperature at TF Green has not been below 69° since Sunday! The last five days have average about 10° above normal.

Seas are now 8-12′ off the coast. The wind at the buoys is not too impressive, with 20 mph being reported at the buoy 54 miles southeast of Nantucket.

Satellite imagery suggests that Bill has gotten as far west as it is going to. It got to just about 69W.

Once again, minimal, if any, impact in RI aside from the surf. Rain showers tonight, chance of gusts over 40 mph, on the Cape, Vineyard, and especially Nantucket.

1:30PM
Bill appears to be moving just west of the projected track. Probably not far enough west for an impact in RI, but conditions on the Cape/Islands will probably deteriorate by late afternoon. It doesn’t look like the Cape/Islands will experience sustained Tropical Storm force winds, but some gusts over 40 mph are possible. There is a band of rain just a few miles from Nantucket. It should arrive about 2PM.

Right now, it’s 84° in Providence, but it feels like 92° because of the oppressive humidity. The “precipitable water” content is very high today. Any shower should contain torrential downpours. A t-storm north of Boston today produced about 2″ of rain in an hour.

Buoy observations are still 8-10′ with easterly winds beginning to take over as Bill makes its presence known.

2PM update on Bill is due soon. You’ll be able to see it on the interactive Stormtracker on the home page.

12PM
Bill isn’t looking too shabby on satellite right now. The center is at 69W and 35.5N. This is the best Bill has looked in the last 12 hours. The storm will be over very warm water for the rest of the day, so some strengthening is possible.

Outer-most band is within two hours of Nantucket if it continues at its current pace. Seas are still 9-11 ft offshore.

Bill is going to bring rain and some wind to the Cape/Islands. The worst will definitely be on Nantucket.

Here is a reliable computer projection for late this evening:

The heavy rain from Bill gets very close to Nantucket and the lower Cape.

Still typing…

11AM
Bill appears to be coming around the bend on the satellite imagery. The storm is almost to 69W and is crossing 35N. Motion at 11AM was a hair west of north (355°) at 20 kt. A gradual turn to the NNE is expected in the next 12 hours. Max. sustained winds are 100 mph. Probability of tropical storm winds has been dropped to 32% for Nantucket.

An outer band is visible on the Stormtracker radar loop. This band may reach Nantucket by mid-afternoon.

A lot of instability exists overhead today, so pop-up showers and t-storms are likely throughout RI and SE MA. Some of the storms could be on the strong side.

Latest buoy data showing 10 ft. seas just to our south.

Seas were building off the south coast at 11AM

10AM
Bill is showing some giddy-up this morning as he has begun his move due north at about 22 mph. Maximum sustained winds are still 105 mph. The storm is enormous, with tropical storm winds (40mph) extending an amazing 275 miles from the center. The National Hurricane Center has placed the coast of SE MA in a Tropical Storm Warning. There is a 40% chance of tropical storm-force winds on Nantucket, and a 5% chance of sustained winds over 50 kts.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT
HYANNIS MA     34  X  26(26)   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
NANTUCKET MA   34  1  37(38)   2(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X  12(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

Seas are quickly building to about 10 ft. at the buoys south of Nantucket and Long Island. The wind is swinging around to ESE at some of the offshore buoys. Click here for the ABC6 Hurricane Buoy Reports.

Scattered showers and t-storms are showing up over Southern New England this morning. These are not directly related to Bill, but some heavy t-storms are possible in the incredibly humid airmass overhead.

Another update just after 11AM.

Southeast Massachusetts could get whacked if Bill tracks 150 miles west of the forecast

Hurricane Edouard, although not a landfalling hurricane in Southern New England, had a pretty significant impact in Southeastern Massachusetts. The storm brought hurricane-force gusts to the Cape and Islands. This comes directly from the National Hurricane Center’s recap of the storm:

The hurricane came close enough to New England to produce sustained winds of tropical storm force at Nantucket Island and the Cape Cod area. Wind gusts to hurricane force were reported at Nantucket. Table 3 lists selected surface observations from Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine. In addition, there were unofficial reports of wind gusts to 90 mph at Nantucket, 80 mph at Martha’s Vineyard, and 77 mph on Cape Cod.

The storm also delivered very heavy rain to Cape Cod and the Islands. Many places east of Bourne reported more than five inches of rain. The storm had a very sharp edge to the rain shield. There was only .27″ of rain at TF Green Airport.

At one point, a Hurricane Warning was posted from Watch Hill, RI around the MA coast to the Merrimack River. This was subsequently dropped as the hurricane force gusts did not stretch west of Cape Cod.

Between Providence and the Cape, there was an area of Tropical Storm force winds. New Bedford reported wind gusts of 50 mph.

Remember, in order for Bill to have an impact similar to Edouard, the storm would have to track about 150 miles west of its current forecast. That’s not a small amount, but it is certainly not unheard of, considering the storm is still over 200o miles offshore.

Claudette developed overnight Sunday, and was immediately a threat to make landfall in the US. The storm spun up off the west coast of Florida, but it will move onshore farther up the coast in the Panhandle near Pensacola. The storm is not terribly strong, and it is not likely to intensify before landfall.

Tropical Depression Ana has been weakening today and is not likely to be a major player as it wanders through the Caribbean. The Dominican Republic, US Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should all see some squally conditions and 2-4″ of rain.

The storm of greatest concern is Bill. It is very close to hurricane strength, and most of the computer models crank the maximum sustained winds to over 100 mph in the next couple of days. The storm will likely move just north of the Leeward Islands, and may miss the Caribbean completely.

Right now, although Bill is a storm the entire East Coast of the US needs to watch closely, I’d say the biggest threat is for Bill to hit Bermuda. Many of the Stormtracker projections take Bill to north of Puerto Rico, and then curving to the north toward Bermuda. Of course, long-range hurricane projections can be erratic, so we’ll have to monitor this for the next couple of days.

Satellite and radar images from early on July 24, 2009

A late-July storm brings 2-4″ of rain and wind gusts over 40 mph downing trees and power lines. Sure sounds like a tropical system, but it wasn’t.

A rare mid-summer Nor’easter roared through Southern New England last night. Sure, the storm had tropically enhanced rain, but the core of the storm was charged by a disturbance (front) moving through the mid-latitudes.

In any event, this storm was more impressive than some dying tropical storms that have come through with a lot of hoopla and little left in the tank.

I hope we did a fair job in warning our viewers of the potential impacts from this storm. Even though it didn’t carry a name like a tropical storm, it did deliver a blow very similar to some past tropical systems that have impacted us.

This storm added to the now record total we’ve seen in July. The official tally isn’t in yet, but TF Green has seen at least 9.50″ of rain this month. The total smashes the old record of 8.08″ set in 1976. Third on the list is 1938 with under 7″ of rain.

1976 and 1938 are significant because in both those years Southern New England was hit by hurricanes. That is not to say that we are destined to get hit this year, but it does show that the general weather setup that brings heavy July rains can also bring hurricanes later in the year.

Given the current weather pattern, we are very susceptible to storms coming from Carolina coast to Southern New England. Even though it wasn’t tropical, last night is perfect evidence of how storms will track in this pattern.

Here are some of the rain totals reported to the National Weather Service:

...KENT COUNTY...

COVENTRY              3.34   616 AM  7/24   SPOTTER

...NEWPORT COUNTY...

MIDDLETOWN            2.48   624 AM  7/24   SPOTTER

LITTLE COMPTON        2.01   514 AM  7/24   SPOTTER

...PROVIDENCE COUNTY...

PAWTUCKET             3.14   615 AM  7/24   SPOTTER

WOONSOCKET            2.92   615 AM  7/24   SPOTTER

CRANSTON              2.19   615 AM  7/24   SPOTTER

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...

KINGSTON              4.23   615 AM  7/24   SPOTTER

NARRAGANSETT          3.79   615 AM  7/24   SPOTTER

CHARLESTOWN           3.61   606 AM  7/24   SPOTTER

WESTERLY              3.15   630 AM  7/24   AIRPORT

NORTH KINGSTOWN       2.27   615 AM  7/24   SPOTTER