ABC6 Chief Stormtracker Meteorologist Fred Campagna has a video update on the disturbance.

If this disturbance does become Tropical Storm Danny, it would instantly become a “watcher” for the East Coast. Its position should be farther south and west than Bill ever was. The computer simulations do not make this into an overly intense system, but we’ve seen how much a difficult time the models have with tropical storm or hurricane intensity forecasts.

The National Hurricane Center has this disturbance in a 30-50% chance for development into a tropical system within 48 hours.

Farther south, just off the coast of Central America near Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, is a mass of thunderstorms that is capable of producing heavy rain. This system could end up similar to Claudette in that it develop near shore and moves inland quickly. It is no threat to the United States.

Even though the intensity forecast has been inaccurate, the track forecast has been very consistent. Bill is heading to the northwest, with a gradual turn to the northeast expected over the weekend.

ABC6 Chief Stormtracker Meteorologist Fred Campagna has the latest on what the forecast track means for Southern New England.

Bill was not looking overly impressive just after midnight Friday. The storm is being bothered by dry air in its path. This should be a temporary issue, as the storm is turning north of the dry air, but it may be enough to weaken the storm a bit.

Hurricane Bill, although still Cat. 3, has encountered some dry air.

The storm is forecast to be over 83-85° water tomorrow. Wind shear should be relatively light. Some strengthening is possible.

About those computer models…the latest information suggests that Bill will pass far enough east that Rhode Island and interior SE Massachusetts will not have to worry about strong winds or Bill-related rain Saturday night or Sunday morning. The core of the wind and rain may brush against the Cape/Islands, but will most likely not make it west of the Cape Cod Canal.

In fact, there may not be a noticeable impact in RI. In other words, if you didn’t know that Bill was to our east, then you’d never suspect it. The breeze will briefly be out of the north in the morning, before shifting back to the west-southwest in the afternoon.

There is still the chance of showers on Saturday night and Sunday, but the rain would not be directly related to the storm. It could be enhanced a bit by the tropical moisture from the storm, but it is unlikely we’ll get into the rain-bands near the circulation.

Here’s a big caveat – the computer models, and the three paragraphs you just read, are all based on Bill’s current motion, and the speed/placement of the trough that is going to steer the storm. IF Bill takes a different track than forecast over the next 24 hours, the ultimate impact in the Northeast could change significantly. To this point, the storm has not done anything unexpected, and let’s hope that continues tomorrow.

Even with an easterly track, you can still bank on some big surf at area beaches over the weekend. Be careful!

On the heels of T.D. Two is a tropical wave that has high potential for development. Per the National Hurricane Center, there is a greater than 50% chance that this area of disturbed weather becomes a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Some computer models track that system close to the U.S. in about 10 days. It is one to watch.

We are really into some rare territory when it comes to late-starting hurricane seasons. This is now fifth on the list of late-starting seasons since 1960. The last time we waited this long for a tropical storm to form was in 1992. The storm was Andrew – the last storm to strike the U.S. as a Cat 5.

Obviously, there is no correlation between slow-starting seasons and a reduced potential for devastating storms.

A couple of factors may be impeding the storm’s development. The first factor is a lot of dry air and Saharan dust in the vicinity of the storm. You can see all the dry air in this image below on the left. Click the image for a larger view. The dry air is colored red.

The image on the right shows the amount of wind shear (turning of the wind with height) that the storm is encountering. Wind shear inhibits the development of tropical systems. Light winds in the upper atmosphere are favorable for storms to develop. This storm, although not hitting extremely strong wind shear, is entering an area of increasing wind shear. This is most likely contributing to the storm’s slow development.

The third image is sea surface temperature. You can see that ocean temps are warm throughout the Eastern Atlantic near the storm. The sea surface temperature is not a negative contributor to the storm’s development.

The storm is still likely to reach Tropical Storm (Ana) strength within 24 hours. It may not, however, become a hurricane. The long-range computer models are not too bullish on the intensity forecast. Many of the projections keep the storm between 50-65 mph for several days to come.

The Tropical Wave that is off the coast of Africa is showing more potential to develop. At this point, the National Hurricane Center says there is about a 30-50% chance that this becomes a tropic cyclone in the next 48 hours.