********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL********************
LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                     RAINFALL       OF
                     (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT
MASSACHUSETTS
...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   ACUSHNET              2.91   615 AM  8/23   SPOTTER
   NEW BEDFORD           2.45   625 AM  8/23   ASOS SINCE MIDNIGHT
...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
   KINGSTON              3.74   700 AM  8/23   COCORAHS
   PEMBROKE              3.09   415 AM  8/23   AMATEUR RADIO
   MARSHFIELD            2.78   453 AM  8/23   AMATEUR RADIO
   SCITUATE              2.76   415 AM  8/23   AMATEUR RADIO
   HALIFAX               2.52   654 AM  8/23   SPOTTER

The storm did not feature strong winds, as the highest gusts on land were still less than tropical storm force. The stronger side of a fast-moving hurricane like Bill is the eastern side – thanks to the forward momentum of the storm and the counter-clockwise turning of the wind.

The storm brought rough seas and pounding surf a day before its arrival, and it looks like the show of high surf will continue on the day it departs.

• Here is a webcam view of the surf from Wellfleet.
• Coast Guard Beach Cam
• Surf Cam in Narragansett
• More Southern New England Wave Cameras

Notice the temperature graph below. Bill definitely churned up the water. The water temperature fell by almost 10° in a few days at this buoy 15 miles east of Boston.

The water temperature dipped from the mid 70s to the mid 60s

Bill is going to pound Nova Scotia and Newfoundland today. If you want to keep track of some of the buoy observations near Bill – just click here.

Midnight
In honor of Bruce Springsteen, I’ll come out for an encore…

I just stepped outside for a minute after getting home. I wanted to experience just a small bit of this storm that I’ve spent almost every waking hour tracking for the past week. Of course, in Bristol, the effects are fringe at best, but there was a light breeze and some “misty rain” – another nod to Springsteen.

The rain band across the lower Cape is pretty impressive. It’s crossing the Canal into Buzzards Bay and SE MA. It may make it into RI overnight. Any Bill-related rain will be gone from the Cape by mid-morning tomorrow.

The wind will peak between now and 8AM on the Cape and Islands. It won’t be very impressive. Probably a few gusts over 30 mph.

For anyone who wants to turn the page in a hurry, there may be another storm brewing in the Western Atlantic by midweek. A disturbance will move through the northern Caribbean islands, and some models show a tropical system developing a bit west of where Bill was a few days ago.

11PM
Update on ABC6 News!

20-25 ft seas SE of Nantucket. Wind gusting over 30 mph on Nantucket, to about 45 mph 50 miles southeast of Nantucket.

Heavy, but thin, rain band over the Cape and Martha’s Vineyard.

Thanks for following the storm with me all day. It’s been a fun ride forecasting the storm, and then watching it evolve today. As always, it was a great learning experience, and hopefully next time the forecast will be even more accurate.

10PM
Water was up to the base of the boardwalk at Scarborough Beach in Narragansett at the time of high tide this evening. Tides are running astronomically high this week. There will probably be some minor flooding in a few spots on the Cape/Islands.

Minimal wind influence from Bill so far. Winds on the Cape/Islands are 12-25 mph at all land stations. The Nantucket buoy is gusting to 31 mph, and that buoy 55 miles south of Nantucket is seeing 40+ mph wind gusts.

The wave observations are really getting up there. The buoy south of Nantucket is up to 25 feet, and a buoy south of Long Island is reporting 21 foot waves.

There is a rain band across Buzzards Bay. You can track it using the interactive Stormtracker Radar on ABC6Hurricane.com.

Make sure "Storm Tracks" is checked, then click on the thunderstorm icon

9PM
Thin band of rain from the Cape through Martha’s Vineyard. During the afternoon and early evening, most of these bands had a hard time holding together as they moved west.

Heaviest rain band of the day is developing about 75 miles south of Nantucket. It’ll be interesting to see if it can spin back into Nantucket and the Cape. Short-range computer model says no, but I’m not convinced.

Hourly observations have not changed much. Still 36 mph gusts and 22 foot waves 55 miles south of Nantucket.

8PM
Wind, rain, and waves continue to pick up just south-southeast of Nantucket. Buoy observation of 22 ft. waves 54 NM SSE of Nantucket. Watch the video update for more.

7:30PM
Bill 250 miles SSE of Nantucket. Max winds still 85 mph. Moving north (360°) at 24 mph.

7PM
Seas now 12-16′ at offshore buoys. Wind gusting to 36 mph at buoy 54NM SSE of Nantucket. Nantucket gusting to 23 mph. Bill is cruising right along. It looks like a rain band is spinning off the storm and will flirt with the Cape and Nantucket.

There are currently no t-storms in Southeastern New England.

Bruce Springsteen & the E Street Band take the stage at the Comcast Center in about 15 minutes. Wish I was there, but very happy that I’ll be there tomorrow night!

6PM
Full coverage on ABC6 News!

4:30PM

Latest on Bill:
37.1N 68.8W (300 miles SSE of Nantucket)
N at 24 mph
Winds are down to 85 mph

The storm should cruise by tonight. It will be accelerating away from us tomorrow morning. Squally weather still possible tonight on the Cape/Islands. Storm should be about 150 miles from Nantucket at about 2AM.

3:30PM
Bill is starting to veer a bit east of north as he picks up a bit of forward speed. Rain bands should continue to spin into the Cape and Islands this evening. Bill will be north of SNE by dawn tomorrow.

I’m heading into work. Another update in about an hour.

2:30 PM
Rain band has reached Nantucket. Band continues to move through Nantucket Sound and may hit the Lower Cape by 3PM. Elsewhere in Southern New England, it’s more of the same – partly sunny, warm, and very muggy. FYI – the temperature at TF Green has not been below 69° since Sunday! The last five days have average about 10° above normal.

Seas are now 8-12′ off the coast. The wind at the buoys is not too impressive, with 20 mph being reported at the buoy 54 miles southeast of Nantucket.

Satellite imagery suggests that Bill has gotten as far west as it is going to. It got to just about 69W.

Once again, minimal, if any, impact in RI aside from the surf. Rain showers tonight, chance of gusts over 40 mph, on the Cape, Vineyard, and especially Nantucket.

1:30PM
Bill appears to be moving just west of the projected track. Probably not far enough west for an impact in RI, but conditions on the Cape/Islands will probably deteriorate by late afternoon. It doesn’t look like the Cape/Islands will experience sustained Tropical Storm force winds, but some gusts over 40 mph are possible. There is a band of rain just a few miles from Nantucket. It should arrive about 2PM.

Right now, it’s 84° in Providence, but it feels like 92° because of the oppressive humidity. The “precipitable water” content is very high today. Any shower should contain torrential downpours. A t-storm north of Boston today produced about 2″ of rain in an hour.

Buoy observations are still 8-10′ with easterly winds beginning to take over as Bill makes its presence known.

2PM update on Bill is due soon. You’ll be able to see it on the interactive Stormtracker on the home page.

12PM
Bill isn’t looking too shabby on satellite right now. The center is at 69W and 35.5N. This is the best Bill has looked in the last 12 hours. The storm will be over very warm water for the rest of the day, so some strengthening is possible.

Outer-most band is within two hours of Nantucket if it continues at its current pace. Seas are still 9-11 ft offshore.

Bill is going to bring rain and some wind to the Cape/Islands. The worst will definitely be on Nantucket.

Here is a reliable computer projection for late this evening:

The heavy rain from Bill gets very close to Nantucket and the lower Cape.

Still typing…

11AM
Bill appears to be coming around the bend on the satellite imagery. The storm is almost to 69W and is crossing 35N. Motion at 11AM was a hair west of north (355°) at 20 kt. A gradual turn to the NNE is expected in the next 12 hours. Max. sustained winds are 100 mph. Probability of tropical storm winds has been dropped to 32% for Nantucket.

An outer band is visible on the Stormtracker radar loop. This band may reach Nantucket by mid-afternoon.

A lot of instability exists overhead today, so pop-up showers and t-storms are likely throughout RI and SE MA. Some of the storms could be on the strong side.

Latest buoy data showing 10 ft. seas just to our south.

Seas were building off the south coast at 11AM

10AM
Bill is showing some giddy-up this morning as he has begun his move due north at about 22 mph. Maximum sustained winds are still 105 mph. The storm is enormous, with tropical storm winds (40mph) extending an amazing 275 miles from the center. The National Hurricane Center has placed the coast of SE MA in a Tropical Storm Warning. There is a 40% chance of tropical storm-force winds on Nantucket, and a 5% chance of sustained winds over 50 kts.

- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT
HYANNIS MA     34  X  26(26)   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
NANTUCKET MA   34  1  37(38)   2(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X  12(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

Seas are quickly building to about 10 ft. at the buoys south of Nantucket and Long Island. The wind is swinging around to ESE at some of the offshore buoys. Click here for the ABC6 Hurricane Buoy Reports.

Scattered showers and t-storms are showing up over Southern New England this morning. These are not directly related to Bill, but some heavy t-storms are possible in the incredibly humid airmass overhead.

Another update just after 11AM.

The intensity forecast for this storm was awful. It was almost as bad as the track forecast was good. Kudos to the National Hurricane Center for the terrific track forecast. Intensity forecasting is the most difficult part of hurricane prediction, and this storm is a classic case of how wrong things can go. Based on yesterday’s forecast, Bill was supposed to be a Cat 4 monster right now, instead, he’s a wobbly Cat 2.

It looks like Bill has started on his weekend bender. In fact, when you watch the video notice the motion of the storm in the last six hours. It is not very far from due north. If the storm is heading due north in the next 12 hours, you can count on it passing several hundred miles to our east.

The storm is still going to throw big waves at us, but the odds of strong wind or heavy rain are low for all of Southern New England – even the Cape / Islands.

Bill will race away from us on Sunday, but a disturbance overhead may fire off some t-storms in RI and/or SE MA in the afternoon and evening. Here’s hoping they stay away from the Springsteen concert at the Comcast Center – I’m three rows outside of the overhang.

Bill was not looking overly impressive just after midnight Friday. The storm is being bothered by dry air in its path. This should be a temporary issue, as the storm is turning north of the dry air, but it may be enough to weaken the storm a bit.

Hurricane Bill, although still Cat. 3, has encountered some dry air.

The storm is forecast to be over 83-85° water tomorrow. Wind shear should be relatively light. Some strengthening is possible.

About those computer models…the latest information suggests that Bill will pass far enough east that Rhode Island and interior SE Massachusetts will not have to worry about strong winds or Bill-related rain Saturday night or Sunday morning. The core of the wind and rain may brush against the Cape/Islands, but will most likely not make it west of the Cape Cod Canal.

In fact, there may not be a noticeable impact in RI. In other words, if you didn’t know that Bill was to our east, then you’d never suspect it. The breeze will briefly be out of the north in the morning, before shifting back to the west-southwest in the afternoon.

There is still the chance of showers on Saturday night and Sunday, but the rain would not be directly related to the storm. It could be enhanced a bit by the tropical moisture from the storm, but it is unlikely we’ll get into the rain-bands near the circulation.

Here’s a big caveat – the computer models, and the three paragraphs you just read, are all based on Bill’s current motion, and the speed/placement of the trough that is going to steer the storm. IF Bill takes a different track than forecast over the next 24 hours, the ultimate impact in the Northeast could change significantly. To this point, the storm has not done anything unexpected, and let’s hope that continues tomorrow.

Even with an easterly track, you can still bank on some big surf at area beaches over the weekend. Be careful!

At this point, the greatest impact in Southern New England should be high surf. If the storm is as intense as forecast, even a track 300 miles to our east would throw very high waves at our south-facing beaches. A high rip current risk is likely at many area beaches Saturday and Sunday.

ABC6 Chief Stormtracker Meteorologist has many more thoughts on Hurricane Bill in the video update below.

Southeast Massachusetts could get whacked if Bill tracks 150 miles west of the forecast

Hurricane Edouard, although not a landfalling hurricane in Southern New England, had a pretty significant impact in Southeastern Massachusetts. The storm brought hurricane-force gusts to the Cape and Islands. This comes directly from the National Hurricane Center’s recap of the storm:

The hurricane came close enough to New England to produce sustained winds of tropical storm force at Nantucket Island and the Cape Cod area. Wind gusts to hurricane force were reported at Nantucket. Table 3 lists selected surface observations from Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine. In addition, there were unofficial reports of wind gusts to 90 mph at Nantucket, 80 mph at Martha’s Vineyard, and 77 mph on Cape Cod.

The storm also delivered very heavy rain to Cape Cod and the Islands. Many places east of Bourne reported more than five inches of rain. The storm had a very sharp edge to the rain shield. There was only .27″ of rain at TF Green Airport.

At one point, a Hurricane Warning was posted from Watch Hill, RI around the MA coast to the Merrimack River. This was subsequently dropped as the hurricane force gusts did not stretch west of Cape Cod.

Between Providence and the Cape, there was an area of Tropical Storm force winds. New Bedford reported wind gusts of 50 mph.

Remember, in order for Bill to have an impact similar to Edouard, the storm would have to track about 150 miles west of its current forecast. That’s not a small amount, but it is certainly not unheard of, considering the storm is still over 200o miles offshore.

Claudette developed overnight Sunday, and was immediately a threat to make landfall in the US. The storm spun up off the west coast of Florida, but it will move onshore farther up the coast in the Panhandle near Pensacola. The storm is not terribly strong, and it is not likely to intensify before landfall.

Tropical Depression Ana has been weakening today and is not likely to be a major player as it wanders through the Caribbean. The Dominican Republic, US Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should all see some squally conditions and 2-4″ of rain.

The storm of greatest concern is Bill. It is very close to hurricane strength, and most of the computer models crank the maximum sustained winds to over 100 mph in the next couple of days. The storm will likely move just north of the Leeward Islands, and may miss the Caribbean completely.

Right now, although Bill is a storm the entire East Coast of the US needs to watch closely, I’d say the biggest threat is for Bill to hit Bermuda. Many of the Stormtracker projections take Bill to north of Puerto Rico, and then curving to the north toward Bermuda. Of course, long-range hurricane projections can be erratic, so we’ll have to monitor this for the next couple of days.

On the heels of T.D. Two is a tropical wave that has high potential for development. Per the National Hurricane Center, there is a greater than 50% chance that this area of disturbed weather becomes a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Some computer models track that system close to the U.S. in about 10 days. It is one to watch.

We are really into some rare territory when it comes to late-starting hurricane seasons. This is now fifth on the list of late-starting seasons since 1960. The last time we waited this long for a tropical storm to form was in 1992. The storm was Andrew – the last storm to strike the U.S. as a Cat 5.

Obviously, there is no correlation between slow-starting seasons and a reduced potential for devastating storms.

A couple of factors may be impeding the storm’s development. The first factor is a lot of dry air and Saharan dust in the vicinity of the storm. You can see all the dry air in this image below on the left. Click the image for a larger view. The dry air is colored red.

The image on the right shows the amount of wind shear (turning of the wind with height) that the storm is encountering. Wind shear inhibits the development of tropical systems. Light winds in the upper atmosphere are favorable for storms to develop. This storm, although not hitting extremely strong wind shear, is entering an area of increasing wind shear. This is most likely contributing to the storm’s slow development.

The third image is sea surface temperature. You can see that ocean temps are warm throughout the Eastern Atlantic near the storm. The sea surface temperature is not a negative contributor to the storm’s development.

The storm is still likely to reach Tropical Storm (Ana) strength within 24 hours. It may not, however, become a hurricane. The long-range computer models are not too bullish on the intensity forecast. Many of the projections keep the storm between 50-65 mph for several days to come.

The Tropical Wave that is off the coast of Africa is showing more potential to develop. At this point, the National Hurricane Center says there is about a 30-50% chance that this becomes a tropic cyclone in the next 48 hours.